THE STUPIDITY OF THE STRONGEST, or he who can lose the most wins.
On June 22, Nazi Germany launched its attack on Russia. Known as Operation Barbarossa, after a former emperor of the Holy Roman Empire. Russia was a country that at the time was groaning under the dictatorial rule of Joseph Stalin. It was still reeling from a series of purges from 1929 to 1938, which had severely damaged the command structure of the Russian Red Army. According to some historians, it had even paralyzed it.
In the first few months, the invasion seemed to match the success of the blitzkrieg in Western Europe. However, this was only an illusion. The vastness of the Russian steppes was not ideal for carrying out rapid pincer movements with fast-moving tank columns, known as the blitzkrieg. And the army’s necessary reserves of manpower and equipment were far from sufficient to succeed in the plan. The German general staff knew this in advance, yet none of the military leaders dared to oppose the Führer. The plan was therefore carried out more on the hope for the best than on the certainty of ultimate victory. The defeat was sealed by the German military and political leadership ignoring the wisdom that victory belongs to those who can lose the most.
On February 24, 2022, special operations against Ukraine began in eastern Russia. Contrary to expectations of the much stronger Russian forces, this operation took a surprising turn. Instead of collapsing and surrendering, the Ukrainian army put up fierce resistance. They prevented the capture of Kyiv and halted the planned advance within 14 days.
The main causes were a lack of good intelligence by the Russian army leadership. Centralized leadership by Putin is based on fear. Overestimating their strength and underestimating Ukraine’s will to resist. In addition, what is often forgotten is their interpretation of history, in which the effects of the Holodomor and the hatred caused by wounds that have never healed were not considered.
This has led to the current relatively stable stalemate. Ukraine’s economy remains dependent on the highly variable military support of its allies. Russia is depleting its financial reserves and manpower. And its financial clout is being undermined by mounting national debt.
The same applies to this struggle: whoever can sustain the greatest losses will emerge victorious, albeit severely maimed.
This is what Israel will also discover in the coming years. That the law of the strongest comes at an incalculable cost to those who believe they will emerge victorious from the conflict. Every Israeli will face increased hostility. They may become victims of this. Not only will there be economic losses, but also the loss of social cohesion, without which no state can exist. Not only has the country’s credit rating been downgraded, but billions of people have lost their trust in this inhuman state.
Israel now enjoys the incalculable advantage of what I see as a fifth column. American Jews who transfer large sums of money to this state. The goodwill of all kinds of conservative Christians, right-wing populists, and autocratic politicians, Trump foremost among them. An economy weakened by the constant threat of war from this state’s neighbors.
But a global recession caused by an attack on Iran, for example, will destroy this advantage. Because you can count yourself rich if you are poor in spirit, but it is better to be cautious. Especially if you do not know the other side’s reserves. Because the other side’s reserves will cost you money!
AUTHOR: LUDO 23-08-2025
And who is going to win?
The first question that needs to be asked is in what area. You can win politically, but lose everything in terms of human dignity. (*Israel) After your victory, you may be weakened and have to give ground to movements that previously had no chance. ( Italy and Germany after the First World War) A victory rarely leads to lasting unity. Often, discontent grows among those who feel they have not benefited enough from the victory, even though they believe they fought the hardest and suffered the most.
There are three ways to win a fight. According to the most famous Japanese sword master, Musashi Miyamoto, the best way is to avoid any unnecessary fighting. That saves the most. The second way is to make peace as quickly as possible after the skirmishes have started. This limits mutual losses, while making your point clear. The third way is to completely exhaust your opponent and slaughter them. This costs you a great deal of strength in addition to the necessary losses, leaving you severely weakened. Meanwhile, you have to hope that the loser has no friends or close relatives who will come to avenge him. Because the right of the strongest depends above all on the assumption that you will not have to fight forever.
Every victory is therefore relative in terms of time. Eventually, the countries in the Middle East will prevail if they not only embrace the pan-Arab idea, but also coordinate and combine their economic and military forces based on that idea. Based on the current state of affairs, I foresee Ukraine ending up in the same position as Poland between the two World Wars.
A fragile political balance that is easily disrupted by all kinds of opposing forces. This can be strengthened if the EU dares to show its teeth with one voice. Strange as it may sound, this requires the right wing to become its enemy. Or the narrow-minded middle class, the people who feel attacked from all sides, on whom this undercurrent relies, to see the light.
